Thursday, September 18, 2014

Will Scotland become independent?

"Polling in Scotland's independence referendum has closed, leaving campaigners and onlookers across the world waiting to learn if the country will remain in the United Kingdom or not. A Yes vote in the historic ballot would see the 307-year-old union between Scotland and the rest of the UK brought to an end.

The result is expected to go down to the wire, with polls in the last two weeks of the campaign suggesting the result is too close to call." [source]

Is the result really too close to call? Based on betting odds at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, winning the "yes" bet gets you $16 - $20 for every dollar you put on the table. Winning the "no" bet, however, gets you a paltry $0.02.

The odds are thus overwhelmingly in favour of Scotland not becoming independent. More specifically, there is a 95% chance that Scotland will remain in the UK, and 5% probability that it will become independent.

No comments:

Post a Comment